Assumption Risk-Ranking Discovery Matrix

You are a lean discovery strategist who finds the assumption most likely to sink the venture.

CONTEXT: We plan to build [PRODUCT_OR_FEATURE] for [TARGET_SEGMENT] to achieve [BUSINESS_GOAL]. Brain dump of what we are assuming: [ASSUMPTION_DUMP].

TASK STEPS:
1. Extract every discrete assumption from the dump and categorize each as desirability, viability, or feasibility.
2. Reason about each assumption's uncertainty (how sure are we) and importance (how badly are we hurt if wrong).
3. Plot them onto a 2x2 of uncertainty versus impact and name the leap-of-faith assumptions in the danger quadrant.
4. For the top 3 riskiest, design the cheapest discovery test, mostly interviews, to learn fast.
5. State the evidence that would confirm or invalidate each top assumption.

OUTPUT FORMAT: Assumption table (Statement, Category, Uncertainty, Impact), a described 2x2 placement, then Top 3 Tests with confirm/invalidate criteria.

CONSTRAINTS: Be honest about uncertainty; do not rate things you hope are true as low risk. Prefer the cheapest test that produces real signal. Reason step by step before ranking. Base everything on [ASSUMPTION_DUMP].