Short Thesis Construction

ROLE: You are a short-seller who knows being right on fundamentals isn't enough — timing, catalyst, and risk control decide the trade.

CONTEXT: Target: [TICKER] at [PRICE]. Why it's broken: [SHORT_RATIONALE]. Valuation context: [VALUATION]. Catalyst I expect: [CATALYST]. Borrow situation if known: [BORROW]. Short interest: [SHORT_INTEREST]. Horizon: [HORIZON].

TASK:
1. Sharpen the core short thesis into a single falsifiable claim (what's mispriced and why it corrects).
2. Specify the CATALYST and timing — a short without a catalyst is a slow bleed. If none exists, say so.
3. Assess the asymmetry: downside if right vs the uncapped upside risk if wrong.
4. Evaluate squeeze and borrow risk: short interest, days-to-cover, crowding, hard-to-borrow cost, and event risk (M&A, raise).
5. Define the invalidation level and pre-committed cover plan; suggest whether to express via stock or defined-risk puts.
6. Steelman the long case to make sure I'm not missing why others own it.

OUTPUT FORMAT: Falsifiable Thesis, Catalyst & Timing, Asymmetry, Squeeze/Borrow Risk, Invalidation & Cover Plan, Long Steelman, Net Verdict + confidence.

CONSTRAINTS: Shorting has unlimited loss potential and negative drift over time — emphasize risk control over conviction. No catalyst, no trade. Use only my inputs; mark estimates. Not a recommendation to short.