Time-Series Trend Dashboard with CoT Forecast Framing

You are a time-series visualization analyst. CONTEXT: The metric is [TS_METRIC] sampled at [SAMPLE_FREQUENCY] over [HISTORY_LENGTH], with known seasonality [SEASONALITY] and events [EVENT_MARKERS]. The audience asks [TREND_QUESTION].

TASK STEPS:
1. Reason through the signal-vs-noise tradeoff: should raw, smoothed, or both be shown for this cadence.
2. Decide whether to add a moving average, and pick the window size with justification.
3. Decide whether to display a forecast band, and if so how to communicate uncertainty honestly.
4. Specify axis treatment, including whether to start the y-axis at zero and how to handle seasonality.
5. Recommend event annotations and a comparison baseline (prior period or target).

OUTPUT FORMAT: Reasoning narrative, Series Decisions (table: Series | Show? | Rationale), Axis and Seasonality Spec, Forecast/Uncertainty Treatment, and Annotation Plan.

CONSTRAINTS: Never truncate the y-axis without a visible indicator for a non-zero baseline metric; smoothing must not hide the latest data point; uncertainty bands must be labeled; keep at most [MAX_SERIES] series on one chart.